Fourth Generation Warfare

Warfare has evolved from third generation, industrial-age war like WWII to a new, fourth generation of war (4GW).

The primary focus of 4GW is the will of enemy decision makers.

The body of a U.S. soldier being dragged through the streets of Mogadishu, the smoking ruin of the U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut, and a naked Vietnamese girl fleeing a napalmed village prompted major changes on the United States' policies in those countries.

The primary paths of attack are the networks that permeate society—political, economic, social and military.

Moqtada al-Sadr threatened the oil industry workers and got the pipeline shut down. Oil prices went up. Then he burned down oil industry buildings—and oil prices reached another high. At very little cost to himself (or the future health of Iraq), he extracted a huge economic cost from the rest of the world.

Insurgents continue to force their opponents out of their countries.

The Vietnamese, Sandinistas, Afghans, Chechans and Hizbollah never defeated the armed forces of the United States, USSR or Israel. Yet, they drove those forces from their territories. In each case, they broke the will of their opponents. In Vietnam, it took a decade, in Somalia a few months, in Beirut a single day.

4GW wars are long—measured in decades, not years.

The duration of 4GW combined with its steady, unrelenting attack on the United States' collective will requires the country to shift its concept of war. We cannot provide for our national security by transforming our forces to fight short, high-tech wars against conventional armies. Instead, we have to accept the fact we will be fighting this war of wills for decades, until 2020 or 2025. We must take the steps necessary to sustain our will and win.  

4GW Targets

The people who are kidnapped or killed are not the targets.

Insurgent attacks target the decision makers who can change their opponents' strategic goals, who can decide to withdraw.

United States

The actual targets of the insurgents in Iraq and Afghanistan are the U.S. government and voters. The slow but steady rise in U.S. casualties, the constant bombings, the attacks on oil production facilities, the kidnappings, and the beheadings are all part of an effort to break the Unites States' will in Iraq. The daily use of television, newspapers and the internet to broadcast their attacks (they even provide the video footage) is a time proven method. By wearing down the will of the American people, the insurgents put pressure on U.S. decision makers in Congress. While not as dramatic as the devastating attacks of 9-11, these attacks may be more damaging in the long term.

Russia

The Chechen attack on Beslan, their third significant attack in Russia, was targeted directly at the Russian leadership and people. The message is simple: If you want your children to be safe, free Chechnya.

Spain

The March Madrid train bombing effected the outcome of the country's election, which then led to Spain's withdrawal from Iraq.

Department of Defense's Strategy

The United States' enemies are networks that focus on people and politics. In contrast, the Department of Defense (DOD) is a hierarchical bureaucracy focused on technology and weapons while missing what is becoming increasingly important in war.

Chaos is an inherent part of warfare. Fog, friction and chance are here to stay. No amount of technology will overcome them so the U.S. military has to plan and train accordingly.

How should the United States Fight 4GW?

Personnel policies are the biggest restraint to change.

The United States can win, but must change. The bureaucracy must be replaced. Coordinated interagency action is only way the US can combat 4GW. This dictates a change in how the military selects, trains and promotes people.

Correctly identify the nature of the war we are fighting.

We need to demand our leaders lay out their plan for winning the decades-long political struggle that is at the core of these wars. We must not accept "stay the course" or "involve allies" sound bites as plans. We have to demand a coherent plan for winning the political struggle in each. The plan has to prioritize our efforts, describe the tools and include a budget. Currently, we do not even have a budget for next year much less the next decade. If we do not discipline our spending, the financial limits imposed by programs such as Social Security, and obligations related to Department of Defense procurement spikes, will restrict our options in the war.  

Achieve energy independence.

Until we achieve energy independence, we tie our national security to an extremely volatile part of the world. Voluntary conservation won't work. The solution will require a high-priority national effort and a variety of technologies.   One obvious step is energy taxes. Such taxes can serve two purposes.   First, they can help pay for the war and second promote alternative energy sources to foreign oil. We are Americans. We can invent, invest and work our way out of the situation if we make it a national goal.

Keep the war in perspective.

Every year, 43,000 people die on our highways. Since September 2001, we have suffered the equivalent of forty three 9-11's in highway deaths. In short, while this form of war is painful, the losses are bearable for our nation.